Lexington, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

824
FXUS63 KGID 191122
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of evening/nighttime convection is expected
  tonight, including a bit more widespread coverage of rain.

- Summer heat and humidity will be in place in the coming days
  including the possible need for a head headline
  Monday/Tuesday.

- The outer reaches of the forecast period remain littered with
  evening/nighttime storms chances of 20-30% on average.
  However, it shouldn`t be as wet as recent weeks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Overnight thunderstorms impacted the northern reaches of the
forecast including Valley, Greeley, Nance, Merrick and Polk
counties with heavy rain and gusty winds at times. The storms
unleashed an outflow boundary that is slowly fading with time
but did manage shift winds to the north/northeast across areas
along about Highway 6 and points north in south central
Nebraska.

The surface flow is somewhat worked over with the convective
in the region. We will see a deepening easterly flow on the
top side of a frontal boundary along the KS/NE border by late
afternoon. Most of the day today will be dry, warm and humid.
However, a west/southwest upper flow will support late afternoon
High Plains convective to the west, which will move east along
the stalled surface boundary tonight. CAMs models did not handle
last night`s t-storms very well, so current confidence in any
specific outcome is lower than normal, but the models have been
consistent with the scattered shower/storm MCS-like system
tonight across the area. Precipitation chances remain fairly
high tonight even the recent short term model performance. No
argument with the western half of the area in a slight risk for
severe weather given the instability of the day. Expect initial
storm impacts to mostly west of Highway 183 and not until 5-6-7
PM.

Once the overnight convection fades, Sunday will be similar to
Saturday (very warm to hot and humid). The daytime forecast is
dry. Once again, we will see another chance for overnight
showers and storms Sunday night sliding from west-to-east across
the area, albeit not as favorable as tonight. Confidence is low
regarding specifics of those storm chances given this very
random, summer atmosphere.

There will be some slight height rises Monday/Tuesday and that
will help push temperatures higher both days. Given the high
dewpoints, the current forecast of apparent temperatures are in
the Heat Advisory criteria. Subsequent forecasts will be
updated an evaluated for the need of headlines after
collaboration with nearby NWS offices.

In the mid-late week time, the upper flow moves to more
southwest again and the potential for an embedded wave or two to
fire up some storms again becomes more prevalent. As mentioned
in the key messages, there are several small chances for mostly
nighttime showers/storms through the week ahead. Wednesday
through Friday will be a bit cooler when compared to Monday and
Tuesday, but still very warm to hot overall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected during the day today with fairly
light east/northeast winds. PROB30 for thunderstorms is in
the forecast for this evening and overnight as scattered
convection develops west and moves east. CAMS models have been
really struggling with particulars of how storms may evolve
and impact any one area. Should storms occur, ceilings will
may drop to MVFR category for a time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz